On June 11, Peru announced an indefinite fishing ban due to El Niño weather conditions. The ban was originally set to expire on June 10.

According to IFFO: The Marine Ingredients Organisation, the ban may be lifted fully, partially or gradually subject to scientific assessment and updated biological, fishing and environmental conditions. Repeated suspensions reflect “ongoing concerns around warm waters and a high share of juvenile fish.”

Global trends in marine ingredients also point to widespread weaker fishmeal output and lower fish oil output. IFFO said April 2026 fishmeal production fell 21 percent year-on-year and cumulative production fell 26 percent from 2025. The April 2026 production of fish oil was down 19 percent year-on-year, and cumulative output was down 14 percent from 2025.

“Peru accounts for a large share of global fishmeal and fish oil supply, implying that disruptions quickly tighten availability,” said Enrico Bachis, market director at IFFO.

According to Norwegian ingredient supplier Aker BioMarine, during strong El Niño events, warmer ocean temperatures reduce the flow of nutrient-rich waters along the Peruvian coast, lowering marine productivity and negatively affecting anchoveta populations. As fish stocks decline or shift away from traditional fishing grounds, catch volumes can fall sharply.

Aker BioMarine CEO Matts Johansen said Peru’s single anchoveta fishery supplies about half of the world’s EPA and DHA fish oil. Disruptions can have significant global impacts on omega-3 availability and pricing.

“The fish oil industry experienced a major disruption during the 2023 El Niño event. Looking ahead, El Niño conditions are underway and expected to intensify through 2027, creating significant supply-side risks for the global omega-3 market. Fish oil availability will be increasingly constrained, with tightening inventories and heightened competition for remaining supply, driving prices sharply higher,” Johansen said.

For supplement brands, contract manufacturers and ingredient buyers, the fishing ban will cause issues such as ingredient shortages, cost escalation, margin erosion and operational disruption.

“The broader challenge is concentration risk: a substantial share of the world’s omega-3 supply is tied to a single fishery. This dependence creates a critical vulnerability across the supply chain,” Johansen said. “As climate-related disruptions become more frequent and severe, brands that rely on marine omega-3s face increasing exposure to supply shortages, price volatility, and sourcing uncertainty. Diversifying omega-3 supply strategies is no longer simply a risk-management consideration, it needs to become a strategic necessity.”

The challenges are compounded by the fact that supplement brands are not the primary consumers of fish oil. Aquaculture is the dominant end market—farmed salmon and other species require EPA and DHA to support growth, health and survival. Fish oil availability is no longer driven solely by consumer demand.

Johansen added the 2023 disruption revealed how dependent the global omega-3 industry has become on a limited number of supply sources. Companies that heavily depend on a single EPA and DHA source are often the most vulnerable to supply interruptions, cost increases and operational challenges.

“Today, the concern is even greater. I personally believe that without diversification, we will run out of omega-3s in the next 12 months leading to empty shelves worldwide. For many businesses, transitioning to an alternative omega-3 source can take between six and eighteen months, which is why they need to act now,” Johansen said. “The world needs more EPA and DHA, not less. Populations are growing, people are living longer and demand for preventive nutrition continues to rise. The question is whether supply can keep pace.”

According to Aker BioMarine, consumer awareness of the benefits of omega-3s continues to expand and most of the global population falls short of recommended EPA and DHA intake levels. Ongoing scientific research demonstrates the role of omega-3s for various health and wellness applications including products designed to support GLP-1 users.

“Together, these factors are all contributing to a growing imbalance between increasing demand for omega-3s and the limitations of supply. The key takeaway is that the most successful businesses will be those that take a proactive approach now, rather than attempting to make changes after shortages have already emerged,” Johansen said.

For more information, visit www.iffo.com or www.akerbiomarine.com.